How to measure an online store's success, week by week and month by month
Orders and revenue look good long before the bank does. The numbers that tell you whether a cash-on-delivery store is really working: which to check every week, which every month, and how to work each one out.
Most store dashboards lead with orders and revenue. Both can grow while the business loses money. That's especially true under cash on delivery, where an order only turns into money once a courier hands it over and pays you.
That's the norm in Egypt. Ministry of Communications data reported in 2024 found that about 98.4% of people who shop online prefer to pay cash on delivery. And it isn't cheap: a BCG study of merchants found that in Egypt, cash on delivery remains significantly more expensive for merchants than cards or other payment methods.
So the question isn't how many orders you got. It's how many were paid, and what each one left you. Below are the numbers that answer that, split into what to check every week and what to check every month. The examples use one Egyptian COD store's real September numbers, the same store as in What a returned COD order really costs you.
The one number to start with: profit per delivered order
If you track one thing, track this: what each delivered, paid order leaves you after every cost, including the ads and courier fees spent on the orders that never paid.
For this store in September, before courier fees, COD fees and fixed costs, each delivered order left about 143 EGP. How that's worked out, and how to add the rest, is in Contribution margin and break-even, worked through. The free COD profit calculator does the whole sum for a month of your numbers.
Every week: the numbers you can still fix this month
These move fast, and you can act on them before the month closes.
Confirmation rate
Orders that ship ÷ orders placed. This store shipped 1,364 of 1,759, or 77.5%. A sudden drop usually means bad leads from one campaign or a problem on the confirmation team. Whether confirming orders pays for itself is a separate sum, covered in Is COD order confirmation worth what it costs?
Delivery rate
Orders delivered ÷ orders shipped. This store delivered 1,235 of 1,364, or 90.5%. Track it by courier, by governorate and by product. A low delivery rate in one area or one product is a leak you can fix.
Returns and refusals
Orders returned ÷ orders shipped. Here, 129 of 1,364, or 9.5%. Don't compare it with global "return rate" figures. Shopify cites NRF data that about 19.3% of online sales were returned in 2025, but that's mostly US stores, and it counts returns after payment, not refusals at the door. We know of no reliable public benchmark for COD refusals in Egypt or the Gulf, so your own last three months are your benchmark. What each one costs you is in What a returned COD order really costs you.
Ad cost per order placed, against your maximum
This week's ad spend ÷ orders placed. This store paid about 73 EGP per order placed. On its own that number means nothing. Compare it with the most you can pay before an order stops being profitable, which depends on your margin, confirmation rate and delivery rate. For this store, before courier fees, that ceiling was 173 EGP per order placed. The max ad cost per order calculator works yours out, and Break-even ROAS for cash on delivery explains the formula.
Every month: the numbers that tell you if the month worked
Net profit per delivered order
Contribution per delivered order, minus the month's fixed costs spread over the delivered orders. This is the number that says whether the month paid for itself.
Break-even delivery rate
The share of shipped orders that must be delivered for the month to end at zero. For this store, before courier fees and fixed costs, it was 38.1%, against an actual 90.5%. The gap between the two is your safety margin. Watch it shrink as courier fees, fixed costs or ad costs rise.
Real ROAS against break-even ROAS
Ads Manager reports ROAS on purchases as it counts them, which includes orders later cancelled or refused. Shopify's definition makes the limit clear: ROAS focuses on revenue earned by ad spending, not profit. Real ROAS is revenue from delivered orders ÷ ad spend, and the test is whether it clears your break-even point, which Shopify defines as 1 ÷ your margin. In September this store's ROAS on orders placed, the way Ads Manager counts them, was about 5.07. Its real ROAS on delivered orders was about 3.56, against a break-even of about 1.5 before courier fees. Its ads cost 73 EGP per order placed, but about 104 EGP per order that actually paid.
Cash collected against what you're owed
Every month, check the courier's statement against your delivered orders: every delivered order paid, at the right amount, with the agreed fee. A mismatch here is money you've earned and not received. How to reconcile a courier statement walks through it, and the courier statement checker does it from your two files in your browser.
A simple routine
- Monday: last week's confirmation rate, delivery rate, returns and ad cost per order placed. Anything moved more than usual? Find the campaign, product or area behind it.
- First working day of the month: last month's profit per delivered order, break-even delivery rate, real ROAS and the courier reconciliation.
- Every quarter: compare each number with the same month last year or the quarter before, and set your own benchmarks from your own data.
Common questions
What's the most important number for a COD store?
Net profit per delivered order: what each paid order leaves you after product cost, ads, courier fees, COD fees and fixed costs. Orders and revenue can grow while this number falls.
Why not just track revenue or orders?
Under cash on delivery, some orders are cancelled and some are refused, but you still paid for the ads and the courier. Revenue counts what was ordered, while your bank only sees what was delivered and paid.
What's a good delivery rate in Egypt?
We don't know of a reliable public benchmark for Egypt or the Gulf, so we won't quote one. Use your own last three months, broken down by courier, area and product, and work out your break-even delivery rate to know how much room you have.
How often should I check these numbers?
Confirmation rate, delivery rate, returns and ad cost per order every week, because you can still act on them. Profit per delivered order, break-even, real ROAS and courier reconciliation every month.